"It's the end of the world as we know it" -- REM

[swmike at swm.pp.se (Mikael Abrahamsson)]

On Wed, 24 Apr 2013, Geoff Huston wrote:

> However, personally I find it a little hard to place a high probability 
> on Tony's projected exhaustion date of August this year. I also have to 
> qualify that by noting that while I think that a runout of the remaining 
> 40 M addresses within 4 months is improbable, its by no means 
> impossible. If we saw a re-run of the address consumption rates that 
> ARIN experienced in 2010, then it's not outside the bounds of 
> plausibility that ARIN will be handing out its last address later this 
> year.

I also find it a bit strange that the runout in APNIC and RIPE was very 
different. APNIC address allocation rate accelerated at the end, whereas 
RIPE exhaustion date kept creeping forward in time instead of closer in 
time, giving me the impression that there wasn't any panic there.

Has anyone done any detailed analysis of the last year of allocation 
behaviour for each of these regions, trying to understand the difference 
in behaviour? I'd be very interested in this.

My belief (not well founded) is that ARIN runout will look more like RIPE 
region than APNIC...

-- 
Mikael Abrahamsson    email: swmike at swm.pp.se