"It's the end of the world as we know it" -- REM

[joelja at bogus.com (joel jaeggli)]

On 4/24/13 1:55 AM, Mikael Abrahamsson wrote:
> On Wed, 24 Apr 2013, Geoff Huston wrote:
>
>> However, personally I find it a little hard to place a high 
>> probability on Tony's projected exhaustion date of August this year. 
>> I also have to qualify that by noting that while I think that a 
>> runout of the remaining 40 M addresses within 4 months is improbable, 
>> its by no means impossible. If we saw a re-run of the address 
>> consumption rates that ARIN experienced in 2010, then it's not 
>> outside the bounds of plausibility that ARIN will be handing out its 
>> last address later this year.
>
> I also find it a bit strange that the runout in APNIC and RIPE was 
> very different. APNIC address allocation rate accelerated at the end, 
> whereas RIPE exhaustion date kept creeping forward in time instead of 
> closer in time, giving me the impression that there wasn't any panic 
> there.
>
apnic allocation reserved  the final /8 for /22 maximal allocations. 
Couple that with some qualifying very large assignments towards the end 
of stage two e.g between feb 1 and april 14 2011 7 provider assignments 
combined soaked up more than 2 /8s and you get rapid runout towards the 
endgame.
> Has anyone done any detailed analysis of the last year of allocation 
> behaviour for each of these regions, trying to understand the 
> difference in behaviour? I'd be very interested in this.
>
> My belief (not well founded) is that ARIN runout will look more like 
> RIPE region than APNIC...
>